Good Price News For '92 Bread May Rise And Citrus May Sour, Forecasts Say. But Beans, Pork And Potatoes Should Be Bargains.

From an expected sizable drop in the price of pork to projected small increases for cereals and bakery products, the overall outlook for U.S. food prices in 1992 seems to be a good one.

Government forecasts indicate that food price inflation will hold in the 2 to 4 percent range - close to the increase of slightly more than 3 percent reported for 1991. That was the lowest food inflation rate since 1986, when prices rose 3.2 percent.

As with prices, supplies of specific commodities will have ups and downs, but, barring crop disasters, American tables should be well-supplied in 1992, with more once-seasonal foods available year-round.

Produce departments showed some good prices this week, including such off- season items as asparagus (from $2.99 a pound), yellow corn (from 33 cents an ear), cantaloupes (from $1.69 each) and watermelon (from 49 cents a pound). But a shortfall in Florida's citrus crop might mean higher prices than usual when we need citrus most.

This year, Florida orange production is down sharply from what the industry had anticipated based on the good growing conditions through the season. The Florida crop is expected to come in around 136 million boxes, compared with early industry forecasts of up to 180 million boxes.

Nature, it seems, has its own agenda and, with the weather so good, chose to have citrus trees grow and mature rather than set extra fruit. Since most of the Florida crop goes into juice, there will be fewer Florida oranges making their way to produce counters. That citrus shortfall should not be too great a hardship, though. The California crop rebounded after last year's freeze and the harvest of 60 million boxes is more than double the low 1990-91 yield.

Four-pound bags of California navels and Valencias are selling at $1.99 to $2.49 in area stores. Specials this week include Florida oranges, six for 96 cents (Pathmark) and red grapefruit, three for $1 (Super Fresh).

Or take advantage of sales on frozen juice concentrates (25 percent off at Acme) and half-gallon cartons of orange juice in the dairy case ($1.79 for Citrus Hill at IGA; $1.99 for Tropicana at ShopRite).

For fruits and vegetables in general, California had short-term losses and a lot of abandoned acreage due to damage from the whitefly. But according to USDA economist Arvin Budge, that was a relatively small part of the overall crop picture. The major crops affected were lettuce (now priced from 69 cents to $1.29 a head locally) and late-season cantaloupes.