Voters Say It's 'Time For A Change' Poll: Santorum Is In Big Trouble

Posted: July 28, 1999

Although it's very early in Campaign 2000, there's evidence that U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., could face re-election trouble next year.

A Daily News/Fox 29 Keystone Poll, an "opening snapshot" of the race ahead, shows statewide voters less than enchanted with their freshman senator.

The 41-year-old conservative wunderkind of Pittsburgh, a favorite of the pro-life, pro-gun political right, shows only a 41 percent overall approval rating, low for any incumbent with no real controversy but especially for one in a GOP-dominated state enjoying a strong economy.

Worse for Santorum, more than a third of the state electorate, 38 percent, is saying it's "time for a change" in the U.S. Senate.

Those results contrast sharply with poll findings that show Pennsylvania voters, by a wide 50-30 margin, favor Republican Texas Gov. George Bush over Democratic Vice President Al Gore in a presidential matchup.

Poll director Terry Madonna of Millersville University said results show Santorum "has not clicked with the voters of Pennsylvania."

He said Santorum "is a polarizing senator, not a consensus-builder, and even after five years of incumbency without serious problems, he has a signifigant number of people willing to vote against him."

None of the Democrats expressing interest in the race was matched against Santorum in the poll and Santorum's media strategist, John Brabender, said that was a serious flaw.

He said that polling against potential Democratic foes shows Santorum with much stronger numbers. He said a Republican senatorial campaign poll showed that Santorum, when tested against several Democrats, was "20 points up on each."

Brabender also said the poll, which had a larger sample of voters, showed voters rated Santorum favorably by a 2 to 1 ratio.

In the Keystone Poll, Santorum is strongest in northwest and central counties, rural areas known for conservative views. He is weak in Philadelphia and the southwest, Democratic strongholds.

He does worst in suburban southeastern counties around Philadelphia, where soccer moms do not share his strict anti-abortion views.

Santorum also appears in trouble with the state's most sizeable voting bloc: senior citizens.

Voters 65 and older called for "change" in the Senate seat at a higher rate, 43.5 percent, than any other age group. The findings, said Madonna, are "unquestionably" tied to Santorum's advocacy of privatizing Social Security.

The Santorum polling data is good news for his potential Democratic foes. State Sen. Allyson Schwartz, said the findings are consistent with what she hears.

"Pennsylvanians agree with me," she said, "Rick Santorum is not representing them well."

U.S. Rep. Ron Klink said he thinks Santorum's support of President Clinton's impeachment hurt Santorum.

He said Pennsylvania's statewide politicians tend to be moderates. "Rick Santorum's too conservative for the state, and I think it's caught up with him."

Santorum got to the Senate by beating then-incumbent Democrat Harris Wofford in 1994, with a two-point edge, 49-47. In so doing, he lost both Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, but carried the state on the strength of suburban and rural voters, many of whom support pro-life, pro-gun politics.

In the presidential matchup, Madonna said Bush's strong showing is partly because "Al Gore is the beneficiary of most of the negative aspects of the Clinton administration." He added, "at the moment, Gore's people have a lot of work to do here."

Send e-mail to baerj@philly.infi.net

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