In that scenario, Republicans could lose control not only of the governor's office, which they have held for 16 of the last 20 years, but one or both houses of the state legislature as well.
With the traditional Labor Day opening of the fall campaign, all signs suggest the likelihood of such a power shift.
Stirring deep-seated uneasiness within the GOP are public opinion polls showing that Schundler, who pulled off a stunning primary victory in June, has slipped badly since then and is trailing far behind his Democratic opponent, Woodbridge Mayor James E. McGreevey.
Analysts say that McGreevey's commanding lead - 19 percentage points in one survey and 20 in another - is attributable not so much to anything McGreevey has said or done as to a perception among voters that Schundler's positions on issues such as abortion and gun control are too extreme.
The independent polls, which mirror Republican surveys in the state, have had a chilling effect on GOP fund-raising and reinforced suspicions that such an avowedly conservative candidate, though able to get through a primary, is simply unelectable in a state known for supporting political moderates.
"Bret Schundler, who looked like such a fascinating candidate after the primary, still finds himself boxed in to an ideological corner, and that has enabled McGreevey to get out to a major lead," said David Rebovich, a political scientist at Rider University.
"Unless Schundler does something pretty quickly, this race is going to have a ribbon wrapped around it for Jim McGreevey very early."
Especially troubling to Republicans is that independent voters and women, two critical voting blocs, seem to be deserting their party's gubernatorial standard bearer in droves.
Republicans are puzzled that Schundler, who opposes abortion rights even in cases of rape and incest and likewise opposes gun controls, has emphasized those positions since the primary rather than moving to the political center.
