Today at 4:30 p.m. * Television: Ch. 3 * Line: Patriots by 1 1/2
Records: Indianapolis (12-4 regular season, 1-0 playoffs) at New England (14-2, 0-0).
Prediction: Colts 27, Patriots 24
Over-under: 52
Coaches: For Indianapolis, Tony Dungy, 49 (third season, also Tampa Bay, 1996-2001; overall 93-62; postseason 5-6); Bill Belichick, 52 (fifth season, also Cleveland Browns, 1991-1995; overall 96-72; postseason 7-1).
Regular season: The Colts won the AFC South. The Patriots captured the AFC East.
Most recent meeting: Sept. 9. The Patriots won, 27-24, in New England.
Three key Colts: 1. Peyton Manning set a single-season NFL record with 49 touchdown passes and added another four in last Sunday's 49-24 AFC wild-card win over Denver. 2. Reggie Wayne has emerged as one of the league's strongest No. 2 receivers, complementing Marvin Harrison. Last week Wayne had 10 receptions for 221 yards and two touchdowns. 3. Nobody has a quicker first step than speed-rushing defensive end Dwight Freeney, who led the NFL with 16 sacks, but had just two tackles and no sacks in last week's playoff win.
Three key Patriots: 1. Quarterback Tom Brady doesn't put up the most impressive individual statistics, but he is 6-0 in the postseason. 2. Corey Dillon rushed for 1,635 yards and 12 touchdowns, and has given this previously running-deficient team a strong ground game. 3. Defensive end Richard Seymour is among the best in the NFL, but he has been hobbling with a knee injury.
Scouting report: There is no question that Belichick, with his varied defensive schemes, has gotten into Manning's head. Manning is 2-9 lifetime against the Patriots, while Brady is 5-0 against the Colts. Manning completed just 23 of 47 passes for 237 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions in the last year's 24-14 AFC championship game loss to the Patriots.
A key performer for the Colts will be running back Edgerrin James, who had a modest 63 yards and one touchdown in 18 carries against Denver. When James is running well, it opens up things even more for the passing game.
In last year's title game, New England's defensive backs pushed the Colts receivers all around the field. That game was credited with making the NFL closely enforce the illegal-contact rule this season.
Last season New England cornerback Ty Law intercepted three Manning passes in the title game, but this year Law is out after being put on injured reserve. New England, which often uses wide receiver Troy Brown in nickel coverage, is seriously suspect in the secondary. Plus safety Rodney Harrison is always a threat to be called for an unsportsmanlike-conduct penalty.
The key figure in this game for New England will be Dillon, who must give the Pats the type of ball-control offense that will keep Manning and the Colts offense off the field. This game will go a long way in determining Manning's legacy. He doesn't want to be known as Mr. September-December. He would like to be the man in January and February.
