Work began in March, and completion is set for next summer, said Greg Hill, a principal at Brown/Hill.
It is likely that the real estate market in which The Ayer debuts won't be the same one in which it was conceived in November 2005, but that doesn't seem to bother Hill. Or, for that matter, other developers with projects still under construction.
"The residential market in Philadelphia has slowed considerably, and there is an abundant supply of midlevel condominium units," Hill said. "Despite lower sales activities on many projects, there continues to be strong interest in The Ayer."
Twenty units are under agreement, and there's a reservation on the 21st, meaning that 35 percent of the building is spoken for, Hill said. He cited the location and its "place at the upper end of the market" as reasons for his confidence.
These new units are competing with an inventory of existing townhouses and condos in Center City and adjacent neighborhoods that is almost 60 percent higher than 2005 levels.
Yet, other developers whose projects are under way or nearing completion seem to see the state of the Center City market in the same positive way Hill does.
Among their reasons: Even as the length of time homes spend on the market increases, median prices in this region continue to rise at what many experts consider respectable levels.
A study of sale prices by the mortgage insurer PMI showed that metropolitan Philadelphia prices went up 11.24 percent between the second quarters of 2005 and 2006, compared with 15.64 percent between the same periods of 2004 and 2005.
By comparison, San Diego's appreciation dropped to 5.46 percent from 19.55 percent in the same period.
The PMI survey has an index measuring the risk of price declines over two years. The Philadelphia metro area has a 17.9 percent risk of such a decline; San Diego's risk is 60.3 percent.
