The Phillies took a flight home yesterday evening with an 11-16-3 record in Florida, but they had won three of their last five. There have been bright spots this spring, and there have been concerns. Here's a look at some of them:
Chase Utley and Greg Dobbs. Spring-training numbers aren't supposed to matter. But Utley and Dobbs left Florida with slugging percentages that are at least 200 points higher than their career marks.
Sabermetrician John Dewan's research has found that the 200 mark often indicates a good season, if that player has a minimum of 200 career at-bats and at least 35 spring at-bats. Utley's slugging this spring is .746, compared with his .509 career mark. Dobbs' slugging is .667, compared to his .351 career mark.
It's OK to be skeptical, but Dewan's formula predicted that Ryan Howard would have an incredible season last year.
Jimmy Rollins. He is hitting .386 with a .493 on-base percentage. He has walked a team-high 12 times. "He's definitely been working the count, which he started in the middle of last season," Manuel said. "He's carrying over his work into the spring, and he's getting better at it. I think hitting the ball hard today was good for him."
Howard, Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand. Each has struggled this spring, but Manuel isn't worried about any of them - especially Howard. Howard and Burrell looked good hitting back-to-back home runs off Pirates righthander Shawn Chacon in the third inning.
"He's all right," Manuel said about Howard, who crushed the ball to right field. "That one got some attention, didn't it? He hit it pretty hard. I think one swing can change the whole outlook of things sometimes. It's what makes you feel good. It's what gives you confidence.
"What about Pat? Pat hit one."
