Nothing that happened during the last few days - when the eight men in the race engaged in two of the major political events of the fall, the Values Voters Summit in Washington and a debate in Orlando - served to change the dynamics of the contest.
The key variable in gauging the Republican contest at this stage is the strength of Rudy Giuliani.
For months, the best-known candidate has been the front-runner in the national polls, his vote hovering around 30 percent, the number rarely rising or falling.
Does that mean he has a ceiling, as social-conservative leader Gary Bauer said over the weekend? Or is that 30 percent a base on which Giuliani can build once the voting starts and the field thins?
These questions arise not just because the abortion-rights stance of the former New York mayor distresses many in the party's base. They arise because Giuliani, whose appeal in the Northeast is undeniable, is running a campaign that does not emphasize the importance of the traditional early states.
Giuliani, who pitches himself as the most electable Republican, is seeking to survive the opening contests, rather than sweep them. His plan is to seize a commanding position on Feb. 5, when California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois and numerous other states select their delegates. He and his aides have been quite explicit about this.
Meanwhile, the candidate who might emerge as his chief rival, Mitt Romney, has adopted precisely the opposite strategy, investing vast amounts of time and money (much of it his own) in the smaller states that will dominate the story line at the outset of the voting.
In Iowa, home of the first-in-the-nation caucuses, now set for Jan. 3, polls show Romney the leader, Giuliani fourth. In New Hampshire, site of the first primary, Romney is first, Giuliani second.
