Much more suspense attends Democrats' effort to seize control of one or more of the courthouses in Philadelphia's four suburban Pennsylvania counties after years on the outside. The party hopes to capitalize on its growing number of registered voters in the suburbs, leftward trends in presidential and congressional elections, and public dissatisfaction with the Bush White House and the Iraq war.
The once-dominant Republican Party controls the courthouses in Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware and Chester Counties. GOP candidates are counting on what pollsters say is general public contentment with county services to stay in control.
Nationally, pollsters and political strategists are watching because Philadelphia's suburban counties have been the key to winning Pennsylvania for presidential and statewide candidates. If Democrats cement their gains by seizing courthouses, the state could become less of a wild card in 2008 and beyond.
"It's a critical test," said pollster Terry Madonna of Franklin & Marshall College. "Over the long haul, if Republicans can't compete in the suburbs they probably can't compete in statewide elections except for rare moments, like a recession or a Democratic scandal."
A Democratic victory in any of the suburban counties would be historic. Democrats have not had majority power in Montgomery County in 138 years, and have been shut out in Chester County for 148. Republicans have won every time in Delaware County since 1980, when the county switched to a five-seat council instead of the more common three-person commission. Democrats had brief control of Bucks for one term in the mid-1980s.
