The signal was there in the spring that 2007 would be a year to forget in the TV biz, when Sanjaya's brilliant teeth and luxurious locks were replaced as the top topic for TV talk by - a blank, black screen.
And things would only get worse. By early fall, changing technology made it tough for networks even to know what to charge for their ads. In November, the dream factory ground completely to a halt. Locally, too, the hot happening was negative, the possible flameout of a promising career.
But there was glowing in the embers. Fall's fantasy glut produced that rarest of TV treasures: a show that both critics and the public embraced. Another drama rose phoenixlike from a calamitous debut, and an old friend displayed new creative verve.
Cable flexed its muscles, too, producing a summer of chewy new dramas, including the year's best one, a show that turned fresh eyes on familiar territory, making it seem brand new.
1. The writers strike. It's like cancer. The walkout, which enters its seventh week tomorrow, won't have its first tangible impact till next month, when virtually every current scripted show will shift to reruns, and the reality river will start to flow with a vengeance.
But the disease doesn't stop there. Scripts for the pilots of next fall's new series would ordinarily be written now. If the strike continues deep into winter, as many are predicting, existing shows, even such fringers as Bionic Woman or According to Jim, get a much better chance at 2008-09 renewal. New ones would go on hold.
That could be just the seismic shift the networks have needed to transform the TV landscape completely, rolling out new shows continuously, once studio life resumes. If that model sticks, it would eliminate forever the furious fall premiere crush that started in the '50s, in part to please big-spending Detroit automakers, who introduced new models annually at that time.
2. Who is watching, anyway? Primarily pushed by cable companies, millions of homes installed digital video recorders. Now one in five families (and growing) has been released from TV's thrall, watching what they want, when they want, and more and more people are also getting TV from desktops, iPods and shoe phones.
