The official Arab view of Bush was summed up inadvertently by a diplomat from a major Arab state, who indicated disbelief that the president planned to use the trip to renew his drive for Middle East democracy. "Is that still on?" the Arab official said sarcastically. He spoke on condition of anonymity because of diplomatic sensitivities.
The contrast between now and the months after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the March 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq could not be greater. Arab officials, whatever they thought of Bush, followed every nuance of U.S. policy and even appeared to accommodate Bush's demands for democracy.
But political liberalization in the Middle East has been in the deep freeze since the extremist Islamist group Hamas' January 2006 victory in Palestinian parliamentary elections.
Bush's new drive for Arab-Israeli peace, launched six weeks ago at an international conference in Annapolis, Md., is already flagging.
Even on Iran, where the United States, Israel and Persian Gulf nations share alarm, there is confusion following a U.S. National Intelligence Estimate in November that reversed an earlier estimate and concluded that Iran abandoned a covert nuclear weapons program more than three years ago.
"The Bush administration has been mugged by reality. After vowing to transform the Middle East, the administration is submitting to it," said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a center-right policy organization in Washington.
"Five years ago, there was a sense that things couldn't get any worse in the Middle East and we should push for change whatever the consequences," Alterman said. "Now, there is a keen appreciation of how many ways things could actually get much worse and how much better off we are working with people we know and with whom we share at least some interests."
