On Baseball: Baseball's start sheds a little light

April 13, 2008|By Jim Salisbury, Inquirer Columnist

Two weeks is a minute sample size when you're talking about the six-month journey that is a major-league baseball season.

Really now, does anyone believe the Detroit Tigers are going to be the worst team in the American League by the time lawns start burning? Does anyone believe they will rank last in runs (as they were entering Friday) over an entire season?

Still, the games count just as much at this time of year, and you can learn a little more about teams during the first two weeks of the regular season than you can in a month of exhibition play during spring training.

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So, acknowledging that two weeks does not a season make, here are a few things we've learned about the National League East, the division in which the Phillies conduct business, as Week 3 begins.

There's lots of parity. The Washington Nationals opened the season with three straight wins against division opponents, then lost seven straight.

The Florida Marlins entered the weekend leading the division.

That said, the Nats and Marlins will probably bring up the rear in a division that looks as if it will be a three-team race involving the Phillies, Mets and Braves.

That's not to say the Nats and Marlins won't be dangerous, especially when playing division rivals 18 times. They cannot be taken lightly. But in the end, the Phils, Mets or Braves will win this division, and the race could be tight.

All three teams have flaws. It would not be surprising if the division champ once again finished with fewer than 90 wins, and it is difficult to envision one team being good enough to run away from the pack.

Health is a must. This is the biggest issue in the division, and we've already seen evidence why. The Braves have already sent starter Mike Hampton and closer Rafael Soriano to the disabled list, this after John Smoltz' first start was delayed by a tender shoulder. The Mets will be without Pedro Martinez (hamstring injury) for another month.

The Phillies, Mets and Braves all have a group of core players capable of putting a team over the top. In Philadelphia, it's Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Brad Lidge, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins. In New York, it's Johan Santana, Billy Wagner, David Wright and Jose Reyes. In Atlanta, it's Smoltz, Chipper Jones, Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann.

A team that loses any one of these players could suffer badly.

Bullpens are crucial. The team with the best (and healthiest) bullpen just might win the division.

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