Leisure flying may sag for an extended period of time, but some portion of the population will still need to take the kids to Florida, visit the grandparents, or take that long-planned trip to Europe. And remember that millions of retiring baby boomers think of leisure travel as a civil right and will provide a boost to the discretionary market for decades to come.
But there's no question we're going to see serious upheaval in the airline industry this year and next, with cuts in capacity leading to less choices on some routes, higher fares, more bankruptcies, and employee layoffs.
The rising fares will probably get as much consumer attention as any of the issues, as it should. Yet, as much as I've ranted over the years about absurdly high prices on routes from Philadelphia, where only the "Big Six" legacy airlines compete, I'm realistic.
Airlines will have to find price points that customers accept, even if the entire fare structure has to go up. Given the chance, some carriers always find a way to gouge those who have no choice when they fly, while offering discounts to those who do.
So where do we find hope in this cloudy outlook?
Look first at the response to higher fares and less competition from business travelers as the economy limps along. The last time we went through this upheaval, after Sept. 11, 2001, the major airlines already were seeing road-warrior resistance to ridiculously high fares, noted Kevin Mitchell, chairman of the Business Travel Coalition. That provided an opening for AirTran, JetBlue, Southwest, Spirit and other low-cost carriers to grow significantly in the business-travel market, he said.
That, in turn, forced the old carriers - and most of their employees - to adapt to a lower operating-cost structure as the Internet allowed business and leisure travelers to be better shoppers. The airlines that survive this time around will have to adapt again.
