The other important metric is the right-track/wrong-track poll number, where respondents are asked if they believe the country is generally moving in the right, or wrong, direction. Today, only 15 percent say right track; 78 percent say wrong track.
Since Obama began his ascendancy in January, the wrong-track numbers have actually increased. But strangely, Obama, whose entire campaign has been centered on the promise of "change," hasn't been helped by this increasingly pessimistic view of the future.
Even by the measure of money, Obama is underperforming. Perhaps it's unfair to hold him to the amazing standard he set this winter, but before recording a $52-million June, his fund-raising numbers had declined for three straight months.
Clearly, something is going on. Three possibilities come to mind:
First, people forget that Obama won the nomination by gaming the system, not getting the most votes.
This isn't meant to diminish his accomplishment. Obama won fair and square, and his insurgent victory against a heavy favorite was the most impressive upset since Jimmy Carter captured the nomination in 1976. Obama earned the nomination. But it does mean that Obama's electoral base may not be as broad or deep as you might assume.
Second, Obama made a strategic decision to abandon his original, central campaign narrative in favor of repositioning himself closer to the political center.
For the last year, the pitch was that this freshman senator was not a typical politician. He promised to eschew politics-as-usual and be a different, more principled, kind of leader. During the last eight weeks, though, Obama has abandoned a host of earlier, left-ish positions - on FISA, public financing, Iraq and more - in order to position himself closer to the center.
