Paul Hagen: With no favorite, NL East racing to wild finish

August 07, 2008

THERE ARE NOW more than 4 months' worth of game results in the ledgers, box scores that can be analyzed and scrutinized, studied and pored over, placed under a microscope and held up to a bright light.

And with all this voluminous data available, it can be fearlessly stated that the Phillies might win the National League East this year.

Or they might not.

Same for the Florida Marlins and New York Mets.

Buckle your seat belts. Turbulence ahead.

The reality is that none of the teams elbowing for position at the top of the division appears to have what it takes to break away from the pack.

Story continues below.

The Phillies lost on Tuesday night, allowing each of their pursuers to pick up a game. They won last night, 5-0, over the Marlins at Citizens Bank Park and now are back to 2 1/2 games ahead of Florida and three over New York.

It figures to be that way right up to Sept. 28. Or maybe beyond.

"We're all very similar," noted Charlie Manuel. "We've all got strengths and weaknesses."

The Phillies manager is right. The trick is to try to gauge which team's strengths trump which weaknesses.

And no matter how long you have been around this game, you probably would have as good a chance picking names out of a hat as figuring out how this is all going to play out.

Except for the part about none of the contenders being good enough to be clear-cut favorites.

"When you get to this point of the year, there are no flukes," said catcher Chris Coste. "Unless you have a huge setback, you're going to be there all year long.

"There's no question it's going to be a three-team race the rest of the way. It would be nice if it was a one-team race, but that would be no fun."

Here's a look at how the scales seem to balance out for the contenders.

* Phillies pluses: The rotation appears to have stabilized. Kyle Kendrick, who pitched six shutout innings last night, has allowed two or fewer runs seven of his last 11 times out. Ageless Jamie Moyer has been charged with three or fewer earned runs in 11 straight starts. Brett Myers and Joe Blanton have pitched better lately.

The bullpen has been terrific.

The Phils have the confidence that come with being the defending division champion.

* Phillies minuses: The offense, advertised as a powerhouse, has been hit-and-miss instead. The Phils have already scored three or fewer runs 43 times this season.

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