"If you model it like 2004, you're going to completely miss what's happening," Plouffe said. "In Pennsylvania, we found that the people who are newly registered turned out at a higher rate than people previously registered."
For years, Democrats have talked wistfully about finding a path to victory by expanding the electorate, on the theory that non-voters tend to be poor or minorities and thus more inclined to support Democrats than Republicans.
Plouffe spoke of the opportunities for Obama provided by the unregistered Hispanics in New Mexico, the unregistered young people in Colorado, the unregistered African Americans in Florida. The campaign manager talked, too, about what he sees as the advantage Obama has in organization and enthusiasm.
"Every national poll you see is based on the 2004 electorate," he said, noting a tightness in most surveys. "I don't like to bet, but I'd bet you the 2008 electorate is going to be changed in some pretty fundamental ways."
Such change rarely happens; if any party has altered the landscape in recent years, it was the Republicans through mobilization of previously apolitical evangelical Christians.
The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a Washington-based think tank specializing in issues of interest to people of color, issued a study yesterday suggesting higher black turnout might make a difference in Ohio, Indiana, and several other states.
As for Pennsylvania, McCain has outspent Obama on TV over the summer and invested far more of his own time in the state. McCain's commitment of resources and the fact that Obama was soundly beaten by Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Pennsylvania primary have given the GOP reason to hope.
State Republican Chairman Rob Gleason said recently that Obama still suffered from the fallout of his comments during the primary that Pennsylvanians are "bitter" people who "cling" to guns and religion.
For his part, Plouffe said that Obama had led McCain consistently in the Pennsylvania polls throughout the summer - for a reason. "We have great strength in Pennsylvania, and we're going to be there in great force," he said.
"Even though Sen. Clinton beat us in the primary, we clearly benefited from the time we spent there," he said. "There's a depth of understanding about who Sen. Obama is that is greater than in other places."
Contact senior writer Larry Eichel at 215-854-2415 or leichel@phillynews.com.
