Specter's the Dems' problem now

By William Kristol

Posted: May 01, 2009

In May 2001, I wrote an op-ed for the Washington Post in the wake of Vermont Sen. James Jeffords' party switch. I argued that the switch, which cost Republicans control of the Senate, could well turn out to be good for President George W. Bush.

Though not entirely for the reasons I speculated on in the op-ed, I turned out to be right.

Bush was still able to get enough cooperation to govern over the next year and a half, and he was also able to run successfully against the Democratic Senate in the fall of 2002. The GOP regained control that November.

Similarly, and contrarianly, I wonder if Arlen Specter's switch, this time to the president's party, won't end up being bad for President Obama and the Democrats. With the likely seating of Al Franken from Minnesota, Democrats will have 60 seats in the Senate, giving Obama unambiguous governing majorities in both bodies.

Obama will be responsible for everything. GOP obstructionism will go away as an issue, and Democratic defections will become the constant worry and story line. This will make it easier for GOP candidates in 2010 to ask to be elected to help restore some checks and balances in Washington - and, meanwhile, Specter's party change probably won't have made much difference in getting key legislation passed or not.

So, losing Specter may help produce greater GOP gains in November 2010, and a brighter Republican future.

Plus, now the Democrats have to put up with him.

William Kristol is the editor of the Weekly Standard and a monthly columnist for the Washington Post, where this appeared.