If the experts are correct and the future will bring a shift to urban from suburban, then Center City merely needs to hang in through the current hard times to reap the benefits.
That's the gist of a report, "Residential Development 2009: Riding Out the Storm," presented yesterday by the Center City District and based, among other things, on a survey of residents in eight zip codes from Tasker Street north to Girard Avenue and between the Delaware River and the Schuylkill.
Nearly 3,100 residents, or 3.3 percent of the population of those zip codes, responded to the June survey, district president Paul Levy said.
The survey was conducted amid continued bad economic news nationally and as the city wrestled with a severe fiscal crisis. Yet 81 percent of the respondents expressed confidence in Center City's future, Levy said.
Trends are favoring downtown housing, said real estate analyst Jeffrey Otteau of the Otteau Valuation Group in New Brunswick, and not because of young professionals and empty nesters returning to cities.
In the postrecession economic cycle, Otteau said, incomes will actually drop, and affordable housing will be concentrated in urban areas. "Two-thirds of households will have no children at home, energy costs will rise, and vertical construction in the downtowns [will be] more sustainable."
Levy said this was the first major recession in which the city had lost fewer jobs than either the region as a whole or the nation, noting, "Philadelphia is extraordinarily well-positioned for economic and residential growth."
Between July 2008 and August 2009, the city lost 3.08 percent of its jobs, while the region declined 3.32 percent and the nation, 4.2 percent, according to recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Philadelphia "has the right mix of industries to weather this economic storm, including health care, educational services, and asset management," said Moody's Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi.
Although the real estate market here has not fared as badly as comparable first- and second-tier cities, sales remain well below normal levels, economists said.
"Currently, home sales are about 30 percent below what they would be in normal times, and 60 percent below what they would be during very good times," said Econsult Corp. Vice President Kevin Gillen.
