Not sure when he started this, but I noticed it about this time last year. When teams have 10 or so games in the books, Pomeroy's computer model projects the rest of their seasons, game-by-game.
I decided to check out his projections for the locals and the unbeatens. I pulled the numbers before the weekend's games.
Temple is projected to finish 24-7, 12-4 in the Atlantic 10. No doubt Fran Dunphy would take that and a solid NCAA seed right now.
The Owls have the eighth best defense, allowing just 84.5 points per 100 possessions. They also have the fifth best turnover percentage, making them a team that does not beat itself.
I wrote a few weeks ago that, among city players, only Temple's Lavoy Allen and La Salle's Rodney Green could crack Villanova's rotation.
That was before Temple's Ryan Brooks, always a solid player, went well beyond solid. And the Owls' Juan Fernandez went completely off in the wins over Villanova and Seton Hall. Those two are playing like they want to play a few March games in that four-letter tournament.
Villanova is projected to finish 20-10, 9-9 in the Big East. Now before all you Wildcat fans panic or rush the site, I think the numbers are off.
The projections are based on what has gone down so far. They can't account for Reggie Redding's defense, leadership and intelligence. They can't account for the freshmen getting a better idea of how Jay Wright wants to play defense.
And defense (95.8 points per 100, 109th) has been the issue for Villanova. The Wildcats have the right players for their style of defense. They just don't know how to play it yet. They will know soon or they won't be playing.
La Salle fans won't be happy with the 16-14, 7-9 A-10 projection. I think the Explorers have really been hurt by the loss of Ruben Guillandeaux during the most challenging part of their schedule. You have to think they would have been more competitive against Villanova, Kansas and Oklahoma State with him.
