You Talkin' to Me? Three and out for the Eagles?

Posted: January 09, 2010

From: Gonzalez, John

To: Ford, Bob; Fox, Ashley

Subject: Round 3

 Eagles fans are desperate to believe the Birds will win tonight in Big D. The thing I hear most is how hard it is to beat a team three times in a row. I'm not sure I believe that, since Buddy's Boys smacked Dallas year after year after year back in the day. If you have the better team, you have the better team.

 Are you buying the idea that the third time will be the charm for the Eagles, that it will be easier tonight since Dallas won the last two?

From: Ford, Bob

To: Gonzalez, John; Fox, Ashley

Subject: Round 3

The situation has happened 19 times since the leagues merged in 1970. The team that won the first two games won the third meeting 12 of those times. Maybe you would expect the number to be higher, and maybe Eagles fans take solace in those seven other instances. I think this is just one of those things people say. If you flip a coin and it comes up heads nine straight times, is it less likely to come up heads the next time? The answer to that one is "no." It's still 50-50.

The reason the stat is meaningless is because that third contest is always between two pretty good teams, so, by extension, a win by either team wouldn't be a surprise. Why are both teams pretty good? Because both made the playoffs. So, if you and your ilk are looking for some shred of hope, I guess this provides it, but I'd be more inclined to say the Eagles have an advantage because the Cowboys will let down a bit this time. "Oh, God. We have to play these stiffs again?"

All it will take is an early Eagles' lead and the game could go the other way. In fact, that's my call. I think McNabb hits the bombs this time and Romo gets rattled and tosses two costly interceptions. I make it 24-13, Eagles.

From: Gonzalez, John

To: Ford, Bob; Fox, Ashley

Subject: Round 3

My ilk? Why not just call us "you people" and be done with it? You're such an anti-Phil-ite

 You bored me stiff for most of that, Buttons, but you redeemed yourself at the end with the stuff about the Eagles playing better and Romo getting rattled. I think both things are possible, even likely. I like the Birds plus the points, and it wouldn't surprise me if they won the game outright, because they have a tendency to shock us.

 But if I was a betting man - and I am - I'd go with the Cowboys to advance. Call it Dallas 24, Philly 21. Hope I'm wrong.

From: Fox, Ashley

To: Ford, Bob; Gonzalez, John

Subject: Round 3

Wow, Bobby. You really think so? Maybe I've spent too much time in Dallas this week, but I don't see the Cowboys losing this one. I know, I know. Romo's never won a playoff game. Wade Phillips has never won a playoff game. This time just feels different. The Cowboys have the better matchups. That's why they won the first two rounds.

I do agree that the only way the Eagles can make a game of it is to go down and score first, or at least score early, to get the Cowboys on their heels. Still, Romo is playing with a lot of confidence, and Austin is a big, strong kid with great feet and hands. He's going to make Asante pay for gambling on him, and you know Asante is going to gamble. 

Plus, the Cowboys are motivated by the two ridiculous self-inflicted wounds by the Eagles this week - DeSean Jackson's big mouth and Dave Spadaro's big spit. Ludicrous. Why those two would give Dallas and its fans any reason to be extra jacked up for this one is beyond me. Cowboys, 28-17.

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