Bill Conlin: Baseball prospects? Depends on the height of your ceiling

February 10, 2010
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  • Michael Taylor, now with Oakland, batted .320 last year.
  • Michael Taylor, now with Oakland, batted .320 last year.
  • Domonic Brown has had two solid seasons in minors.

JUST AS YOU WERE starting to get over the Cliff Lee trade, you got a fresh knee to the groin.

MLB.com is out with its 50 best 2010 minor league prospects list and ESPN.com's Keith Law, a ballwriter, just tossed his Top 100 at the well-punctured dartboard. A couple of weeks ago, AOL's Fanhouse published its Top 100 list.

Throw a few thousand grains of salt on these subjective and, in many cases, premature ratings of players anywhere from a few months to a few years from the major leagues.

Let me use South Jersey's first-ever first-round picks to illustrate the point.

Bill Rowell, a 6-5, 205-pound third baseman from Bishop Eustace Prep, was the ninth pick overall by the Orioles in the 2006 amateur draft. Four seasons later, Rowell has yet to play an inning above Class A. He is probably one more bad season from being dealt or quietly released.

Making both the Fanhouse and ESPN Top 100, however, was Millville High centerfielder Mike Trout, a fleet lad with power and a first-round Angels pick last June. Trout did everything in the short-season rookie Arizona League but hit with home-run power. But, hey, when Mike signed he was still 17.

Is it fair to put an 18-year-old as high as 49 (ESPN) and 52 (Fanhouse)? Shouldn't we at least see how he does in a full-season league?

You'll moan with despair if you take the ESPN rankings personally. But Fanhouse will make you feel better about the Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay deals that involved seven top Phillies prospects and three Mariners minor leaguers.

ESPN's Law gives props to Phils untouchable Domonic Brown (No. 14) and handed-off-to-Oakland Michael Taylor (No. 24), but he buries the key to the Halladay deal, Kyle Drabek, at No. 40. And he strands catcher Travis D'Arnaud, a key member of the same package, at No. 99.

Ah, but here comes the part that will peeve your pinstripes: Of 100 names, not one of them belongs to Phillipe Aumont, Tyson Gillies or J.C. Ramirez. The Mariners trio drew a blank from ESPN.com.

But Fanhouse's Frankie Piliere, a former Rangers scout, treated the Aumont, Gillies and Ramirez-for-Cliff Lee and a bone-spur-to-be-revealed-later, the deal that raised so many hackles, with a modicum of respect.

He rates Aumont No. 29, which is higher than he pegs Michael Taylor (No. 38), and Gillies makes the cut at No. 50. Ramirez is a raw "power arm" and is not considered list-worthy at this time.

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