When it comes to housing, he said, it was unlikely that the dramatic rise in loan delinquencies, foreclosures and bankruptcies would show a "meaningful" decrease in the foreseeable future.
"High unemployment and low house prices are widely projected to remain for an extended period, as well as the rise in problem loans at banks that will restrain their willingness and ability to provide credit," Peek said.
Two groups expected to feel the pinch are young first-time buyers and the so-called active-adult purchasers who downsize as their children grow and move out.
"The impact of a higher unemployment rate for Americans ages 16 to 24 could have a lasting effect on lifetime earnings and attitudes toward risk and social policies," Peek said.
In addition, those nearing retirement are delaying it and reentering the labor force "in an effort to rebuild some of the retirement wealth that was wiped out by the recession," he said.
The housing industry had been banking on both of these groups to sustain growth during the coming decades - especially the empty-nester baby boomers.
"The tougher economic circumstances for twentysomethings and fiftysomethings will weigh on housing demand over the coming decade," said Mark Zandi, Moody's Economy.com chief economist in West Chester. "The first-time buyer and second-home markets would be most directly impacted."
Economist Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insight of Lexington, Mass., said that Peek's assessments "are a lot more dismal than ours, and ours is hardly rosy."
He said today's housing market "is imposing a bit more discipline by requiring bigger down payments and better credit scores for buying homes."
