Poker Guy: Kevin Saul parlays mediocre starting poker hand into a nice pot

SOME HANDS aren't worth playing if you're evaluating them in a vacuum. But poker isn't a vacuum, and the context of odds you're getting and the position you hold can make it worth gambling, such as this hand from young pro Kevin Saul in the 2009 World Series of Poker $10,000-buy-in Main Event at the Rio Hotel in Las Vegas. With blinds at $50-$100, the players in seats 8 and 9 limped from middle position. Saul also limped from the cutoff with K-5 of spades. The small blind made it $550.

"He probably has a good hand because he's raising out of the blind," Saul said. "I put him on ace-king, ace-queen, or jacks or better."

The player in Seat 8 called; the player in Seat 9 folded.

"I wouldn't have played if the guy in seat 8 hadn't called," Saul said. "I was playing because there was another caller" giving him more than 3-1 odds on his call of an extra $450 into a pot of $1,500.

The flop came 9-6-5, two spades. The small blind bet $1,000. The player in Seat 8 folded. Saul called.

"I flopped a pair and a flush draw, but I wasn't going to go nuts with it," Saul said.

The turn came the queen of spades, completing Saul's second-nut flush. Seat 3 checked. Saul bet $1,800. Seat 3 called.

"People are scared by big bets early in this tournament, so I'm trying to get value for my hands," said Saul, who won the World Poker Tour's Bellagio Cup III in 2007. "I had trips earlier and I thought I was betting for value, but a guy check-called me with a full house. For the first hour and 30 minutes, no one at my table was really continuing past the flop, so it was easy to win a lot of small pots.

"It was hard to get a big pot going. People are kind of stingy early on. It's the Main Event. Everyone's nervous.

"When he called, he probably had an overpair in his hand or a spade he doesn't want to let go of. He could have ace-king with the ace of spades. He could have a set. If a spade came on the river, I'd probably have checked behind him or called."

The river came the 9 of hearts, creating the possibility of a full house. Seat 3 checked.

"He could have a set, so if he has a set of queens, the river was really bad," Saul said. "But I also felt if he turned a set of queens, he'd make a bet to see what I'd do."

Saul made it $3,200.

"I still have to try to get value for my hand," Saul said, "and if he raised, I'd just fold."

Instead, his opponent folded and mucked his cards. Saul won a hand on the end that he played only because he liked the odds he was getting at the beginning.

Table talk

Steve Rosenbloom is a sports columnist for the Chicago Tribune and the author of the book "The Best Hand I Ever Played." He can be reached at

srosenbloom@tribune.com.