Paul Hagen: A dilemma Phils might face, if they're lucky

August 27, 2010|by Paul Hagen

Here's a little something to think about during the next rain delay. Or while waiting for the West Coast games to start during the next week.

Just for fun, let's suppose that going into the final weekend of the regular season at Atlanta's Turner Field, the Phillies and Braves have the same record. And that both have already clinched a playoff spot with a four-game lead in the wild-card standings.

So what does Charlie Manuel do? Knowing that he's going to the postseason regardless of what happens in those three games, should he:

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a) Go all-out to take the series and win the division, even if it means pitching Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and/or Roy Oswalt as deep into each game as necessary? Or

b) Take the opportunity to rest the regulars and set up the rotation for the start of the Division Series and, hopefully, beyond?

The neat thing is that there's no right or wrong answer. A compelling argument can be made for either approach.

The case for holding back is pretty straightforward. Getting to the playoffs is nice, but advancing after that is what matters the most. Especially for a team that has been to the World Series each of the last 2 years.

If the ultimate goal is another world championship, and it is, then it makes no sense to do anything the last weekend of the regular season that could have a negative impact on the team's chances.

To let Halladay pitch a complete game on the final Sunday just to try to get a better seed in the postseason tournament, for example, could be viewed as more than a little shortsighted if it means he wouldn't be available until Game 2 or Game 3 of the NLDS. And that's especially risky since the first round is a best-of-five format.

Once a playoff spot is secure, the manager owes it to himself, his players, the entire organization and the fans to give his team the best possible chance to succeed once the postseason begins.

Counterpoint: Winning the division gives a team at least a chance for homefield advantage. The wild card can never have that edge. That's always important but seems especially acute this season.

The Phillies, for example, are 42-26 at The Bank but just 28-31 on the road. And that's a pretty common split among the contenders. The Braves are 44-17 compared to 29-37. The Cardinals are 41-23 at Busch Stadium but just 27-33 elsewhere. Giants: 39-24 vs. 32-33. Rockies: 41-20 compared to 25-40.

Only the Reds and Padres have records that are approximately equal home and away.

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