Baseball contenders jockeying for stretch run

September 01, 2010|By PAUL HAGEN, hagenp@phillynews.com
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  • Phillies ace Roy Halladay is part of a strong starting rotation.
  • Phillies ace Roy Halladay is part of a strong starting rotation.
  • Reds' Scott Rolen is a big reason for team's success this season.
  • Tim Lincecum has been a Giant disappointment this season.

IF THE SEASON ended today, as the saying goes, the Phillies would make the playoffs for the fourth straight year.

Except, of course, the season doesn't end today. Instead, September begins. It's the unofficial start of the stretch drive and little is guaranteed. Over the past three seasons, four of 12 National League teams that would have been in had the season ended on the last day of August found themselves on the outside looking in when the real playoffs started in October: The Mets disappeared in both 2007 and 2008, the Diamondbacks were knocked out in 2008 and the Padres were eliminated in 2007.

So there will still be a lot of jockeying for position, plenty of showdown games and loads of intrigue before the winners are crowned and the Division Series begin.

Here's a look at what confronts each of the National League contenders between now and then. Each team's postseason odds are calculated by Baseball Prospectus. Records and odds through Aug. 30.

 

Braves

 

Atlanta seems to have bottled the magic that winning teams so often possess. At least, so far. The Braves have come back to win 40 times this season including 23 in their last at-bat. The most recent rally came Sunday when they won it on a home run by Brian McCann in the ninth that was first ruled a double then certified after video review.

Somehow, that seems appropriate for manager Bobby Cox, who will retire at the end of the season. But Atlanta isn't winning because they're lucky.

The rotation, headed by Tim Hudson, is solid. The bullpen, anchored by lefties Billy Wagner and Jonny Venters, is stellar. McCann and rookie sensation Jason Heyward have been hot.

Chipper Jones is done for the season. Maybe for good. Troy Glaus, who carried the team in May, is back in Triple A. Derek Lowe may have a sore elbow and workhorse reliever Peter Moylan recently received a cortisone shot in his shoulder. And Atlanta has barely skipped a beat.

Like many contenders, the Braves have played much better at home than on the road. So nine games away from Turner Field against the Mets, Phillies and Nationals from Sept. 17-26 could be an interesting test; the Phillies are home during that same portion of the schedule. But if it comes down to the end, the Braves have the Phils at Turner Field to end the season, games that are sure to include emotional tributes to Cox. Since Atlanta has the NL's best home record, they would have a clear edge if that series is meaningful.

Home games remaining/record: 15 / 47-18 (.723)

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