Baseball contenders jockeying for stretch run

It might seem a bit of a stretch to include Colorado among the teams to be reckoned with down the stretch. Except that this team has a history of coming out of nowhere at the end of the season.

In 2007 the Rockies won 13 of their last 14 to force a playoff against the Padres, won that and then swept the Phillies and Diamondbacks in the playoffs before losing to the Red Sox in the World Series. Last season they went 18-9 in September to secure the wild card. And this year they're up to their old tricks. Just two games over .500 and an afterthought as recently as Aug. 21, they won seven of their next eight to elbow their way back into the picture.

And if destiny plays a role, consider this: They won an important game at San Francisco on Monday night with two runs in the top of the ninth when Carlos Gonzalez shattered his bat on a pitch with a runner on first but still managed to drive the ball toward the gap. There it was misjudged by Giants outfielder Cody Ross, convincing Gonzalez to try for third. He probably would have been out except for a bad relay throw that rolled into a camera well by the dugout. By rule, he was awarded an extra base and scored what ended up as the winning run.

If Colorado makes the postseason this year, though, it will have earned it. No team has more games remaining against contenders except for the Padres and no team has a bigger gap between its home and road record than the Rockies.

Home games remaining/record: 17 / 43-21 (.672)

Road games remaining/record: 14 / 26-40 (.394)

Vs. contenders: 19 – Giants (4), Phillies (1), Padres (6), Reds (4), Cardinals (4)

Vs. noncontenders: 12 – Diamondbacks (6), Dodgers (6)

Off days: 2

Last weekend: Cardinals at Busch Stadium

POSTSEASON ODDS

To win division: 5.57805 %

To win wild card: 10.37013 %

To make playoffs: 15.94818 %

Note: Baseball Prospectus calculates the chance of each team by running a Monte Carlo simulation of each team's remaining schedule a million times.