Ellen Gray: Season's greetings: The best and the worst of the upcoming TV shows

IN TELEVISION, where the picture is always being adjusted, it's probably best to keep predictions to a minimum.

A year ago, a new-to-prime time Jay Leno was the face of our fall TV preview as a struggling NBC set out to reinvent its broadcast model - and save money - by stripping the once and future "Tonight Show" host across five weeknights at 10 p.m.

Twelve months later, NBC's still struggling, but has replaced that lead balloon with four dramas and an hour of Donald Trump ("The Apprentice").

More surprisingly, the five network shows I picked as the best of last fall - Fox's "Glee," NBC's "Community," CBS' "NCIS: Los Angeles," CBS' "The Good Wife" and ABC's "Modern Family" - all survived the season, and four of them are considered hits, at least in this era of downsized ratings expectations.

So while there's nothing new on the broadcast horizon that I love quite as much as I do those five - or HBO's upcoming "Boardwalk Empire" - here's a quick and dirty look at the nearly two dozen new network shows looking for a place in your hearts this month, starting with:

The good . . .

 

If you have room in your life - or on your DVR - for only a few new commitments, here are my Top Five for Fall:

Fox's "Lone Star" (9 p.m. Mondays, Channel 29). The absurdly handsome James Wolk ("Front of the Class") plays Bob, a second-generation con man in Texas whose love for two women - played by Eloise Mumford and Adrianne Palicki ("Friday Night Lights") - threatens to turn him into a better man than his father (David Keith) raised him to be. Soapy but mesmerizing, its long-term prospects rest almost entirely on Wolk's 25-year-old shoulders. Half the fun may be seeing if he (and Bob) can pull it off. Premieres: Sept. 20.

CBS' "Mike & Molly" (9:30 p.m. Mondays, Channel 3). Producer Chuck Lorre ("Two and a Half Men," "The Big Bang Theory") shows his softer side in this sweet - and funny - comedy about a couple (Billy Gardell and Melissa McCarthy) who meet cute at Overeaters Anonymous. Stars who look more like the average viewer than like those Old Navy mannequins? What a concept. Premieres: Sept. 20.