John Baer: For guv, it's anybody's race, if anybody cares

September 08, 2010

WHY, EVEN after Labor Day, does the open-seat race for Pennsylvania governor seem of little interest to voters, especially in Philly and its suburbs?

I have theories. None of them favors Democrat Dan Onorato.

That's because, for Onorato to beat Republican Tom Corbett, there must be interest in the race, especially in Philly and its suburbs.

This is, after all, where the votes are.

A recent statewide Franklin & Marshall/Daily News poll showing Corbett with an 11-point lead found a striking 31 percent of likely voters undecided.

Story continues below.

In Philly, the "don't knows" or voting for "others" (I don't know - Casper the Ghost?) total 39 percent; in the suburbs, it jumps to 44 percent.

Similar polling around this time in the last open-seat governor's race - Ed Rendell vs. Mike Fisher in '02 - had undecideds at 14 percent to 18 percent.

Why so high now?

Well, Corbett and Onorato are Pittsburghers. Philly's mayoral-centric, already abuzz about 2011 and a possible Sam Katz redux, and cares about a governor's race only when you-know-who runs.

Then there's the cycle. State voters have switched parties in the Guv's office every eight years since 1946. After eight with Ed, are Democrats pumped? Oh, and the last Pittsburgh Democrat elected governor was David L. Lawrence, 1958.

Also, there's less political reporting as staff-starved newspapers, including this one, struggle with fewer resources.

"I've never, ever had as much trouble getting coverage during a campaign," says Onorato adviser Dan Fee, a veteran campaign aide who also worked Rendell's '02 race.

So, it's probably one part chicken and egg (little reporting = little interest, or little interest = little reporting) and two parts ennui.

And, while on the surface high undecideds might read like good news for Onorato, suggesting room to grow before Nov. 2, beneath the numbers it's really more like bad news for Dan-O.

More than a third of state voters, including independents, Libertarians and others, live in the Southeast, including more Democrats than anywhere else.

In three of the five Southeastern counties - Philly, Bucks and Montgomery - Democrats outnumber Republicans.

And poll after poll reflects an "enthusiasm gap" showing Democrats less interested in voting this year due to discontent with the economy, the president and, locally, His Edness.

(The Guv's "good" or "excellent" job rating is at 30 percent, the lowest of his incumbency.)

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