No independent polls have been published, and three nonpartisan handicappers - Rothenberg Political Report, Larry Sabato and Congressional Quarterly – have the race as a "toss-up," with neither candidate favored to replace Sestak.
But is it really an even match?
Not anymore, according to the Cook Political Report. Yesterday, the Washington, D.C., newsletter, known for accurately predicting election results, moved the race from the "toss up" to the "lean Republican" category, saying Meehan, with more money and higher name recognition, looks "well positioned" to defeat Lentz.
Local political analysts also think Meehan has at least a slight edge, noting that Republican voters are more engaged than Democrats this year.
Two Quinnipiac University polls released this week showed the Republican candidates leading in Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races – with independent voters breaking their way. Yesterday's Daily News/Franklin & Marshall College poll found similar results in Bucks County's 8th Congressional District race.
"The statewide races are trending toward the Republicans, independents are siding with the Republicans and suburban voters are siding with the Republicans," said Lara Brown, a Villanova University political science professor. "That places an open seat like this one in especially vulnerable territory for Democrats."
The 7th District, which includes most of Delaware County and parts of Montgomery and Chester counties, was held by Republican Curt Weldon for 20 years until Sestak defeated him in 2006.
Sestak was re-elected in 2008 with 60 percent of the vote and President Obama won the district by 13 percentage points. The Philadelphia suburbs have also become more Democratic in recent years, according to voter-registration statistics.
