No rain, but wind could dominate NLCS Game 1

Posted: October 15, 2010

Daily News columnist and amateur meteorologist Bill Conlin provides the latest forecast:

The heavy rain - 1-to-1 1/2 inches were common throughout Red October Country - should have stopped by this morning. The improved weather is being caused by worsening weather to the northeast of us as the developing surface low that was off Atlantic City last night begins to bomb out near the 40 North, 70 West "Benchmark," and stalls long enough to inflict dirty work on New England that will include a raging, wet, snowstorm above 1,500 feet in Vermont, New Hampshire, and even into the Catskills.

The reason the weather looks fairly benign in your back yard is called subsidence. All the energy that helped produce yesterday's rain has been transferred to the developing cyclone. Hence, no rain here, but wind coming, lots of it, as a northwest flow develops in the storm's backlash.

The local NWS office has ratcheted back the wind forecast for Game 1 somewhat, but I'm sticking with models that handle this kind of event a little better than the government model.

I'm issuing a Small Kid Advisory for Game 1, particularly at first-pitch time. Maybe the wind won't gust as high as 45 mph. But all kids under 12 should be tethered to their upper-deck seats. The wind will be gusting from the west-northwest. which is leftfield corner to rightfield corner. Will it blow routine flies into the seats in dead right? Probably not. Strong wind toward that direction tends to deflect off the Bank's tall upper deck and blow balls back. But it's a random effect. If you have ever sailed, you know wind does not blow in a straight line; it swirls and eddies.

It could also impede starting pitchers Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum, two righthanders with incredible movement on their pitches. What will a sudden swirl of wind do to a Halladay sinker aimed at a corner? Or a Lincecum changeup, that dives wickedly without help from Mother Nature?

It will also feel colder than the actual temperature. Wear your Phillies colors over a couple of layers of standard-issue civilian garb. Turn your rally towel into a scarf between innings.

And be a little nostalgic for a night when what used to be the norm in Candlestick Park came East.

The wind should be down for Game 2, but it will still feel like November.

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