Expecting a Shift

They are always waves, tsunamis, earthquakes, landslides. Or hurricanes. Whenever U.S. voters move en masse toward either party in an election, it's time for a metaphor alert.

For Democrats in 2010, the year of midterm discontent, the appropriate image might be a scythe.

Projections show Republicans poised to net anywhere from 48 to 65 seats in the U.S. House on Tuesday, well more than the 39 required to take control there. Election Day will be a "historic bloodbath" for Democrats, analyst Stuart Rothenberg said.

The party is in a sense a victim of its own recent success, having won House seats in more conservative districts in 2006 and 2008, when the wave of public opinion pushed Republicans out of power. At least 100 Democrat-held seats are in play, including 50 in districts carried two years ago by GOP presidential candidate John McCain.

Now, the economy remains mired in recession, and the "hope and change" aura surrounding President Obama has faded amid public worry over federal budget deficits, an expensive stimulus program, and a divisive overhaul of health care.

And, as usual in national elections, Pennsylvania is one of the states that could tip the balance of power. Races for seven U.S. House seats held by Pennsylvania Democrats are competitive; the GOP has a realistic shot to capture four of them, even if the party underperforms projections, polls and interviews with strategists on both sides suggest. It could also pick up a seat in South Jersey.

"This election was cooked and done well before Election Day, just like 2008," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, who in August predicted a GOP House takeover. The economy was weak then and has not turned around, he said.

As for the Senate, Democrats, who hold 19 of the 37 seats at stake around the nation Tuesday, are expected to see their majority shrink. Polls suggest the GOP could pick up eight seats, which would just barely keep the Democrats in control of the chamber.

One seat that could flip is in Pennsylvania, which has one of the most closely watched Senate races in the nation. Recent polls show Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak of Delaware County within striking distance of Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey of the Lehigh Valley, who has led for months in the battle for the seat now occupied by Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter.