As recently as two weeks ago, Kevin Gillen, vice president of Econsult Corp. of Philadelphia, was predicting further slips, 5 percent to 7 percent, before a turnaround in the second half of the year - although, as Gillen and others point out, the Philadelphia market hasn't seen the precipitous drops experienced by other metropolitan areas.
Nor does it have comparable levels of distressed sales, but that's not saying there are none here. It's just that in the Philadelphia market, unlike California, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, the volume of such sales is not large enough to depress prices the way it has in those hard-hit places.
Small comfort for those couples nearing or just past retirement who have lived in their houses for 30 years, paid off their mortgages and other loans, and have been dreaming about moving to over-55 communities in the suburbs, or condos in Center City, or cottages at the Jersey Shore.
Those folks had been counting on the huge amount of equity they had amassed simply by staying in one place. Now, real estate agents, appraisers, and lenders are telling them, there isn't as much equity as there was a month or two ago.
Statistics show that many of these people have deferred selling until times are better - the so-called "shadow market" of houses that could boost inventory for sale just as it starts to come down to manageable levels, facilitating a recovery.
Remember that when Gillen or any economist says that prices have dropped 16 percent since third-quarter 2007, he is talking about the average drop in the median price regionwide.
In some places, prices might not have dropped as much as 16 percent. In other places, they might have fallen more. So you cannot assume that you simply have to lower your asking price 16 percent and your house will sell tomorrow.
Even if your neighborhood's prices are down 16 percent, there is more to a successful sale than price alone.
