Here's hoping next crisis doesn't summon TARP II

March 18, 2011

It's great that the federal bank bailout program known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program will cost taxpayers much less than the $356 billion originally projected.

At $25 billion, the cost is still large. But as the Congressional Oversight Panel said in its final report on the Treasury Department's implementation of TARP, what's unknown is how much the success of TARP in stabilizing the financial system may cost us in the future. Because the federal government showed its willingness in a crisis to rescue anything deemed "too big to fail."

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In particular, the panel took aim at the bailouts of General Motors Corp. and Chrysler L.L.C., two enormous employers certainly, but did they pose a systemic financial risk to the U.S. economy? I don't think so, and TARP's overseers said so in that report released Wednesday.

Make your own list of large companies that could be deemed systemically risky. Could it include defense contractors, search-engine operators, or the National Football League?

Easy to say "no" at a time when the possible collapse of the U.S. financial system seems remote. Washington was in panic mode in fall 2008 when policymakers made the choices they did. My concern is, given the new and improved cost of TARP, they would make the same choices again and maybe even add a few.

Downtown Manhattan's asking rents for office space are falling toward the mid-$30s per square foot in the financial district. That's about the same that high-end buildings such as Philadelphia's Mellon, Liberty Place, and Three Logan (Bell Atlantic) have been trying to charge tenants.

That's a third of what top New York landlords were asking just four years ago. "This casts a light on how volatile a market N.Y.C. is," notes Roger T. McManimon, director at Cushman & Wakefield of Pennsylvania Inc. "Philadelphia is slow and steady in comparison."

As in Philly, the old Wall Street office center is being replaced by a mix of apartment, financial, and general office space.

Bloomberg reported: The best deal on Wall Street might be its office space. Asking rents for buildings at the one-time mecca of global finance have fallen to among the lowest in Manhattan.

Wall Street landlords are seeking rates about 18 percent less than the city average, hurt by years of exodus by financial firms looking for bigger, more modern offices, according to brokerage Studley Inc.

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