No reason not to like Animal Kingdom in Preakness

BALTIMORE - I have picked every winner of the Preakness since 2004, with the exception of 2006 (we'll never know whether Barbaro would have won). This race is much less complicated than the Kentucky Derby because we always have the Derby to review.

Some years, the Derby winner (Smarty Jones, 2004, and Big Brown, 2008) is so dominant, the Preakness selection is easy. Other years, Derby winners (Giacomo, 2005; Street Sense, 2007; Mine That Bird, 2009; Super Saver, 2010) got to the winner's circle because of circumstances that are not likely to be repeated.

And horses that finished behind the race winner (Afleet Alex, 2005; Curlin, 2007; Lookin At Lucky, 2010) had legitimate excuses. And 2009 was kind of a no-brainer with the brilliant Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra coming back in the Preakness.

The Preakness is simply a truer run race. Which brings us to tomorrow. The best horse almost always wins. My initial impression of Derby winner Animal Kingdom was that he was still running hard when he hit the finish line. I did not think there was anything ambiguous about the result.

You just have to forget the horse was 20-1. That was mostly because he was a mystery on dirt, a surface he never worked on until a week before the Derby. On form, Animal Kingdom was much lower than 20-1. Now that we know he likes dirt, Animal Kingdom is the right favorite.

I have gone back and watched the Derby many times, focusing on the five horses that are back running in the Preakness. After watching, my initial impression has not changed. Animal Kingdom won by nearly 3 lengths. There was nothing fluky about any of it. He really should win again.

But . . .

Animal Kingdom had 6 weeks between races before the Derby. Now, only 2 weeks.

"Two weeks would bother anybody," Animal Kingdom's trainer Graham Motion said. "It's not something you set out to run back in 2 weeks when a horse has run obviously the best race of his career. It's not a natural thing to do. The biggest thing is he hasn't missed a meal since he ran."

Obviously, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Curlin, Big Brown, Rachel and Lookin at Lucky had no issue with 2 weeks. So, it can be done.

"It's the first time the horse will have the same jockey ride him two races in a row," Motion said. "And that's got to be an advantage to us, I think."

John Velazquez picked up the Derby mount the day before after the connections did not believe Robby Albarado would be healthy enough to ride. "Johnny V" rides AK back.