Is silver set for another run-up?

May 24, 2011
  • Bars of silver. After increasingin value by 27 percent in April, silver's price dropped 30 percentin the first two weeks of May.

If you were holding portfolio investments in silver in the first few weeks of May, it didn't feel like a silver lining. The white metal plunged in price nearly 30 percent in just two weeks of trading - after a spectacular run-up earlier this year.

So, could silver be set for a rebound?

First of all, why should there be excitement over silver, the cheaper cousin to gold? Michael Purves, chief market strategist and head of derivatives research at BGC Financial, explains that silver's price correlates closely with gold, although not with base metals or other commodities.

While gold is a key holding for many hedge funds and other professional investors, such as billionaire George Soros, silver rarely is a holding at all, Purves said.

Story continues below.

Why is this?

Silver is generally not held by central banks, while gold is. Silver also has a higher proportion of industrial and nonmoney uses than gold does. The metal has been considerably more volatile than gold. Finally, the silver supply-and-demand dynamics are not well-understood.

"We will not be surprised to see many funds and governments diversify their gold holdings into silver in 2011," Purves said, "as gold finds new highs and is more than 45 times more expensive than silver."

Some Wall Street types are predicting that silver will reemerge as "hard money," like gold. Investors across the spectrum recognize that gold prices continue to climb, and will increasingly turn to silver as a valid source of currency that can't be devalued by central banks printing paper money.

However, commodities such as silver and gold are incredibly volatile investments. After running up 27 percent just in April, silver retreated 30 percent in the first two weeks of May - in hugely active trading.

CME Group, which oversees silver trading at its Nymex exchange, citing a bubble in the making, restricted the silver margin (investing with lent money) requirements four times in the span of several weeks, as speculators flocked to the metals markets.

As of Monday, silver closed at $35.10 a troy ounce, up .56 percent.

There are a few ways to invest in silver, but some of these vehicles have incredibly onerous tax consequences. So beware. Because precious metals are considered collectibles by the IRS, once you sell some of these funds, you'll be taxed as much as 28 percent upon the sale.

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