Sea level rise on East Coast called fastest in last century

In the most detailed look yet at sea-level change, scientists Monday reported that waters along the East Coast have risen far faster over the last century than at any time in the previous 2,000 years.

The research team, led by University of Pennsylvania scientists, noted variations in sea levels during different periods and linked those changes with known climate data.

"Where the temperature goes up, sea level goes up. Where the temperature stabilizes, so does sea level. Where the temperature picks up in the 20th century, so does sea level," said geologist Benjamin P. Horton, one of the authors and director of Penn's Sea Level Research Laboratory.

"In the 21st century, as temperatures rise, what will sea level do? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that sea level will rise, too."

The overall finding roughly matched previous predictions. But "it's nice to see this finally confirmed with real data," said Rob Thieler, a research geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, which funded part of the work.

It also lends credence to the upper-range predictions of sea-level rise globally - about three feet by the end of the century - said Pennsylvania State University meteorology professor Michael Mann, who participated in the study.

With many coastal areas just slightly above sea level, more accurate predictions are crucial for flood planning.

Rutgers University sea-level expert Kenneth G. Miller said he recently told Gov. Christie to plan for a rise of about three feet - resulting in a loss of about 3 percent of New Jersey's land area - by 2100.

This would amount to about 170 square miles, most in ecologically critical marshlands, which would experience a 30 percent loss.

Flooding would be more common, said Miller, who was not involved with the new research. The current "100-year" storm causes a surge of about eight feet. Given the sea level rise he expects by 2100, such surges would recur annually, flooding access to bridges, tunnels and Newark International Airport, Miller said.

The new research was published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

To come up with the 2,100-year timeline of sea-level change, the scientists analyzed core samples of sediment taken from salt marshes in North Carolina.