Economic growth weak, data show

Cindy Bliss of Plano, Texas, fills out a form at a recruiting booth. The National Career Fairs event took place Wednesday in Dallas.
Cindy Bliss of Plano, Texas, fills out a form at a recruiting booth. The National Career Fairs event took place Wednesday in Dallas. (TONY GUTIERREZ / Associated Press)
Posted: July 15, 2011

WASHINGTON - A mixed slate of reports Thursday showed the economy is still restrained by high gas prices and sluggish hiring.

Economists are forecasting a pickup in growth in the second half of the year, but the latest data revealed only faint signs of a turnaround.

In one report Thursday, the Commerce Department said retail sales had ticked up only 0.1 percent in June after declining the previous month. Consumers spent more on cars and in big chain stores in June but less on furniture and appliances.

And although the Labor Department said the number of applicants for unemployment benefits had fallen 22,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted total of 405,000, the lowest level in three months, it was the 14th straight week above 400,000, reflecting a weak job market.

Meanwhile, U.S. companies paid less for raw materials and factory goods in June, a separate report from the Labor Department showed. The decline in wholesale prices was driven by the steepest fall in energy prices in nearly two years. Gas prices dropped by the most since May 2010.

Still, businesses and motorists are paying nearly a dollar more per gallon than they were a year ago. That has forced many consumers to forgo discretionary purchases. Growth in retail sales has slowed since February - around the time that gas prices began to surge.

"Consumers are fatigued," said Chris Christopher, an economist at IHS Global Insight. "The only real good news on the consumer side of the economy is that gasoline prices started to fall, but are still relatively high."

Another potential problem: Businesses may have to cut orders in the coming months after adding to their stockpiles for 17 straight months. Sales across all levels of businesses fell in May for the first time in nearly a year, the Commerce Department said in a fourth report Thursday. Fewer sales are a sign that companies may have overestimated consumer demand.

JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli said the bank had lowered its growth forecast for the nation's economy for July-September from 3 percent to 2.5 percent based on the latest data on stockpiles.

The economy would need to grow 5 percent for a whole year to bring down the unemployment rate by one percentage point. Economic growth of just 3 percent a year would hold the unemployment steady and keep up with population growth.

"Clearly the recent stalling in employment growth has forced households to be a bit more careful with their cash," said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist with Capital Economics.

|
|
|
|
|