The American Debate: Again, false GOP hopes for Jewish support

Some things never change. Birds fly south for the winter, the sun rises in the morning, and conservatives persist in believing that Jewish voters will desert the Democratic Party and embrace the GOP.

Yeah, right. And the Beatles will reunite.

Republicans have predicted a mass Jewish Democratic exodus in every election cycle since the '90s, claiming every time that it's really going to happen. And I can understand why they would want it to happen. While Jews account for, at most, only 4 percent of the electorate, they are disproportionately concentrated in big swing states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida.

Now the old Republican story line has been dusted off, yet again, in the wake of President Obama's May 19 suggestion that Israel's prewar 1967 lines should be the basis for peace talks with the Palestinians. Which means that this time, the long-anticipated exodus is really, really, really going to happen.

Supposedly, Jewish voters now realize that Obama is a threat to Israel, making the GOP their natural home. Mitt Romney stokes this notion by claiming that Obama "has thrown Israel under a bus." Michele Bachmann said Obama had "betrayed" Israel, and Tim Pawlenty said that "Obama's insistence on a return to the 1967 borders is a mistaken and very dangerous demand." Republicans have also excitedly circulated a news story, on the Politico website, that says "many" Jewish Democrats have reached "a tipping point" with Obama.

Gee. Where have I heard this kind of talk before?

In 1992, Republicans foresaw "an incremental shift" among Jews toward the GOP - but George H.W. Bush got only 11 percent of the Jewish vote. In 1996, Republicans said that Jews would desert Bill Clinton, that the GOP had "opportunities for realignment" - but Bob Dole got only 16 percent. In 2000, they said that the younger George Bush was "the perfect model of who the Jewish community is looking for" - but he got only 19 percent. In 2004, they predicted "a major shift in [Jewish] party alliances" - but Bush got only 22 percent. In 2008, they said Jews would never get comfortable with Obama - but Republican John McCain got only 21 percent.