"Our estimates suggest that in 2020 the Marcellus industry in Pennsylvania could be creating more than $20 billion in value added, generating $2 billion in state and local tax revenues, and supporting more than 250,000 jobs," said the authors associated with Penn State's department of energy and mineral engineering.
The study is likely to generate considerable controversy. Anti-drilling activists said past Penn State reports overstated the jobs created by gas development and failed to count the cost of potential environmental problems of drilling.
The study's release, coinciding with the conclusion of Gov. Corbett's Marcellus Shale Advisory Commission's inquiry into the industry, is likely to reinforce the governor's conviction that natural gas will be a major economic driver in Pennsylvania for decades to come.
"This is not meant to be in any way a policy agenda, or it's not meant to influence any particular outcome," said Kathryn Z. Klaber, the president of the Marcellus Shale Coalition, which funded the study. "But it is critical that we all understand what's at stake."
The study was written by Timothy J. Considine, a former Penn State professor who is now director of the Center for Energy Economics and Public Policy at the University of Wyoming; Robert W. Watson, a Penn State petroleum engineer; and Seth Blumsack, a Penn State energy economist.
In two previous reports, the authors argued that a proposed severance tax on gas production would retard the industry, which critics interpreted as overt advocacy on a controversial public policy issue.
The new study is less assertive on the tax issue, noting only that Marcellus operators are competing for capital with other shale regions and the absence of a severance tax in Pennsylvania helps offset the higher costs of drilling here.
"The projections developed in this report depend upon the Pennsylvania Marcellus maintaining its relative competitive position," it says.
