The last three elections illustrate the predictive value of the Pennsylvania suburbs. In 2000, Al Gore won Bucks, Montco, and Delco (losing only Chester) and defeated George W. Bush in Pennsylvania, 50.6 percent to 46.4 percent. In 2004, John Kerry captured the same three counties and received 51 percent of the statewide vote to Bush's 48.5 percent. And in 2008, Barack Obama won all four suburban counties and carried the state, 54.7 percent to 44.3 percent.
The year 2008 provided some other evidence of the power of the suburbs. Despite Obama's 10-point margin and the Democrats' near-sweep of statewide offices, Republican Tom Corbett was reelected attorney general. Why? He carried Bucks and Chester while losing by less than a point in both Montco and Delco.
So who among the current Republican presidential aspirants would do best here in 2012?
Not Minnesota U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann. She may have fired up the folks in Ames, Iowa, but it's hard to see her doing so in Ambler. Her opposition to gay rights - she said in 2004 that homosexuality is a "very sad life" - appeals to evangelical Christians and might play in Lancaster County, but it wouldn't here. "The only Bachman that appeals to the Philly suburbs are the pretzels," longtime Democratic strategist Larry Ceisler said.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry? His chief advantage in the primaries is that he has much in common with George W. Bush. That's also his chief impediment with swing voters. Those sound bites that bring down the house with GOP loyalists - such as responding to a question about whether Obama loves America by insisting, "You need to ask him" - would be ruinous in a general election here. Unless the economy gets even worse, it's hard to see Perry doing what McCain and Bush could not.
