On the House: Young people hold off on buying, preferring to rent

August 21, 2011|By Al Heavens, Inquirer Columnist

If you missed the first paragraph of my July 29 "Home Economics" piece in the Business section, I'll repeat it:

The rental market in Philadelphia, and just about everywhere else, is hot, hot, hot!

The article was less about the market itself than about where to go when looking for an apartment and what you should do before signing a lease.

As for the market itself? Well, the vacancy rate in Center City - where most of the residents between ages 18 and 34 rent rather than own - is just 1.8 percent, some in the business have been telling me. Region-wide, the rate is about 5 percent, or perhaps lower, since I haven't seen the figures for the second quarter.

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For many of these renters, these apartments are probably their first after school. Paying rent and associated bills every month is new to them, so buying condos or townhouses might be a culture shock. Yet a recent study from the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California suggests that many other young people have seen how the recession took an ax to their parents' equity and investments and prefer to wait until things settle down before buying.

It may take a while for this to happen, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. Its annual gauge of the housing market and its prospects was not encouraging.

The vigor of housing's recovery hinges on a return of demand, the joint center's report said. But the lingering consequences of the recession and financial crisis are thwarting a broader recovery.

"While the sharp declines in both home prices and interest rates have left homes in many places more affordable than they have been in decades," said Eric S. Belsky, managing director of the joint center, "stubbornly high unemployment and tightened lending standards have limited the ability of many first-time buyers to capitalize on the situation."

"The state of the nation's housing is sobering," Belsky said. "Total housing construction over the previous decade now barely exceeds the lowest level of any 10-year period in records dating back to 1974, but vacancies remain elevated because the recession has driven demand down so sharply."

The only sunny spot? You guessed it: It's the rental apartment market.

"Rental housing markets are tightening and may begin to lead a modest recovery in housing construction this year," said center research director Chris Herbert.

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