Up? Down?
For adversaries in the increasingly politicized and polarized world of shale gas, the USGS's new assessment cuts both ways.
Anti-drilling activists said the EIA's downward revision supported their view that the industry has hyped the new discoveries to generate political and investor excitement.
"I remain concerned about the processes which lead to the original estimates, and I have additional questions about how this change will impact the outlook for shale gas," U.S. Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D., N.Y.) said in a statement.
But the Marcellus Shale Coalition, an industry trade group, touted the USGS's upward revision as further proof of the abundance of shale gas.
The issue is important because of the growing controversy about shale gas, which the EIA says accounts for about a quarter of the nation's natural gas production. The nation consumes about 25 Tcf a year, mostly for heating and power production.
The Securities and Exchange Commission and the New York State Attorney General's Office are investigating industry estimates of gas reserves, which are more optimistic than the federal projections.
Indeed, during recent sessions with investment analysts, four big Marcellus operators - Chesapeake Energy Corp., Range Resources Corp., Ultra Resources Inc., and Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. - estimated their combined 2.9 million acres contain 76 Tcf, nearly as much as the USGS estimates for the entire formation.
The EIA says it is waiting to set its estimate once the USGS provides more information about its assessment to understand where the agencies diverge. "We will not be able to be more precise until that work is completed," said Jonathan Cogan, an administration spokesman.
Even at 84 Tcf, the Marcellus still contains a lot of gas, more than any of other shale-gas plays, according to the USGS.
