"There is a relationship between the state's tax rates relative to the rest of the nation and the net amount of out-migration of both people and income from the state," Steindel said. "The higher the tax rate the state has, generally the more people it will lose every year."
Democrats who control the Legislature said last week that before the end of the year, they would rejuvenate efforts to reinstate the so-called millionaire's tax. The surcharge was allowed to expire at the end of 2009, and Republican Gov. Christie has refused Democrats' overtures to renew it. When Democrats voted to raise the income tax rate to 10.75 percent for 16,000 residents who earn more than $1 million, Christie vetoed the bill.
New Jersey Policy Perspective, a liberal think tank, previously released research showing that raising taxes on the rich didn't cause them to leave and generated substantial new revenue.
"This claim is false," said Robert Tannenwald, a coauthor of the research and a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in Washington.
Steindel said he also surveyed financial advisers over the summer. Of 200 who responded, nearly half reported having advised personal or small-business clients about leaving the state.
The most-often-cited reasons for wanting to relocate were high income and property and estate taxes, he said. The survey found three-quarters of those looking to leave had six-figure incomes.
Small-business owners who leave take jobs with them. Steindel said he found few people or businesses moving into the state.
Democrats said the tax on millionaires would finance programs for the state's most vulnerable residents, which Christie has cut.
"We will not let this issue rest," Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver (D., Essex) said last week when she announced a new leadership team for the lower house.
Christie has vowed another veto if a new millionaire's-tax bill reaches his desk.
