"New-home sales, single-family housing starts, and single-family permits will all set record lows in 2011," Newport said. "Existing-home sales may avoid the cellar, but only because a third of them are selling at 'distressed' prices."
Economist Joel L. Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisers called the level of demand for housing "minuscule."
Housing has been adding a little to growth this year and that is likely to continue, Naroff said. The operative word, however, is little.
"The huge bump in jobs, income, and GDP that we usually get from a rebounding housing market is not likely to be seen for quite a long time, so don't expect overall growth to be great over the next year," Naroff said.
The Census Bureau on Monday also released the state permit estimates for October, with only Alaska and North Dakota not showing historic lows.
Average new-home prices fell in October from September to $243,000 - the lowest since August 2003.
Another record low reached in October was the inventory of new homes for sale - 163,000 or a 6.3-month supply at the current pace.
"Today's report is right in line with our forecast for modest and gradual improvement in sales activity through the remainder of the year," said National Association of Home Builders chief economist David Crowe.
What will it take to get the market running again?
"Job growth up to now has not done the trick," Newport said. "Additional remedies include home prices stop falling, builders have greater access to credit, and that the foreclosure-delinquency rate drop significantly."
"These will happen eventually," Newport said, "but it will take time."
Contact real estate writer Alan J. Heavens at 215-854-2472, aheavens@phillynews.com, or @alheavens on Twitter.
