Small Matters: Small businesses: Uncertainty hurts hiring

December 05, 2011|By Bill Dunkelberg, For The Inquirer
  • CHUCK LIDDY / (Raleigh) News & Observer Occupy supporter Nick Wood was among protesters in Raleigh, N.C., where Wells Fargo chief John Stumpf was speaking.

So, what is standing in the way of small-business hiring and growth?

If you said poor market demand, you would agree with 35 percent of the small-business owners in a recent National Federation of Independent Business survey of 750 owners with under 250 employees selected from Dunn & Bradstreet files.

However, 41 percent cited "uncertainty over business conditions" as their major impediment to expansion. Of those, 51 percent said "political uncertainty" was the source of some or all of their concerns that prevented them from expanding their businesses. Each "impediment" was ranked on a scale of 1 to 7, the percentages presented here are based on the percent of owners selecting the top 2 severity ranks.

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Resolving our political stalemate and adopting a plan that would get our spending under control and reduce the size of our debt and deficit relative to gross domestic product (GDP) could be a major source of stimulus. A significant share of the small-business population would move forward with expansion if political uncertainty was resolved.

Unfortunately, 36 percent of the owners see uncertainty on the rise; 16 percent of them see uncertainty "rapidly increasing"; 30 percent see no change in the current level of political uncertainty, a major impediment to spending and hiring.

So, impediment No. 1 is uncertainty about the future and No. 2 is poor sales. The third most-cited impediment was "lack of finance," according to 30 percent of respondents.

Only a quarter of the owners depend on bank loans, most - 53 percent - use internal cash flow to finance investments in their business. Profits were badly damaged by the recession, and the weak recovery has not restored profitability, leaving the pool of funds to support business spending depleted. To a significant degree, this explains why capital spending is at near record-low levels.

If the so-called Bush tax cuts that we have lived with for a decade expire, taxes on the incomes of most of these small firms will go up, leaving even less to reinvest in the business.

Legal and regulatory issues were assigned the two most severe rankings by 25 percent of the owners. Eighty-two percent of those reported that government regulations were the major obstacle to growth. Thirteen percent reported canceling a project as a result of the regulations; 19 percent postponed spending; 11 percent suspended planning;and 20 percent proceeded with their investment, but incurred higher costs due to the regulations.

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