"I think they're going to have to continue to do the kind of 'come on' pricing that you saw on Black Friday," the day after Thanksgiving, says Alison Paul, head of consulting firm Deloitte's U.S. retail practice.
Merchants already are rolling out big holiday sales. The Body Shop is letting customers spin a wheel of chance to win different discounts, including offers of "buy three, get three." The Gap is selling many of its pajamas, kids' hoodies, and men's cardigans for 50 percent off. And Target has Barbie, Thomas the Tank Engine, and many of its other toy brands for "buy one, get one half off."
But shoppers are yawning at deals that once excited them.
"The ads and the sales - I think it's all hype," says Karen Finch of Gresham, Ore., who is waiting to buy a tablet for her son until closer to Christmas Day because she thinks the discounts on Amazon.com - 48 percent off a $500 BlackBerry version, for instance - aren't good enough. "There's no substance."
To be sure, consumers' perceptions of deals don't always jibe with reality. Most retailers decline to discuss their pricing strategy, for competitive reasons, but research by analysts at Jefferies & Co. and other firms found that many deals this year are as good as - if not better than - last year's.
For instance, American Eagle offered 40 percent off everything all day on Black Friday - better than the 20 percent off until noon that it offered for the last two years, according to Jefferies analysts. The average discount at Best Buy on Black Friday was almost 45 percent, up from about 34 percent last year. The average discount at Walmart was about 47 percent, better than last year's average of 43 percent.