The American Debate: Will Paul break the spell?

 Every four years around this time, the 99 percent of Americans who don't live in Iowa begin to ask themselves, "Why on earth does the presidential primary calendar begin in Iowa?"

Excellent question, but this one is more timely: "Why on earth should we take the Iowa caucuses seriously if it turns out that the Republican winner on Jan. 3 is none other than Ron Paul?"

Yes, people, the cranky fringe candidate who wants to erase the safety net (say goodbye to Social Security and Medicare) and end all U.S. aid to Israel is indeed the Iowa front-runner in three new polls. Go figure. Apparently last week's Newt Gingrich boomlet may turn out to be the worst marketing bust since New Coke. Every time you think that the fluid Republican race can't get any weirder, it does.

Most GOP rank-and-filers are apoplectic about Paul's ascent - as well they should be. They can't fathom why Iowa Republicans would even consider anointing a candidate who supports the legalization of heroin and has assailed the desegregating 1964 Civil Rights Act as a "massive violation of private property." But it's not so hard to understand. Aside from the fact that all the other candidates seem so unpalatable, there's a more fundamental reason:

Iowa. Its caucus process is fertile turf for an insurgent like Paul.

Iowans don't just vote and go home. They have to show up for their precinct caucus meeting at 6:30 p.m. and stick around for hours. They have to declare for a candidate in front of their peers; there is no secret ballot. This means only the most zealous and truly committed Iowans - roughly 15 percent of all registered GOP voters - tend to participate.

This demographic truth is a boon to Paul, whose small-government purity has inspired a growing fan base. And that fan base has been built with the help of a serious grassroots ground game. Paul's organizers have been assiduously seeding those Iowa roots for the past four years - a smart move, because you can't identify the devotees and propel them to the caucus meetings without a great ground game. If past Republican participation is any guide, Paul can snatch first place on caucus night by garnering a mere 40,000 votes statewide. Nearly the number of seats in Citizens Bank Park.