The Pulse: Some trial balloons in Sandusky scandal

Permit me one New Year's prediction about which I am absolutely certain, and two for which I have a strong hunch.

The sure thing: The Jerry Sandusky/Penn State scandal will be "the" state and local issue of 2012. Not even Pennsylvania's role in the presidential race will be able to compete with the unfolding drama in what is now (un)Happy Valley.

The hunches: (1) Sandusky will not stand trial, but (2) former athletic director Tim Curley and former vice president Gary Schultz will, only to be acquitted of the perjury charges they face.

With nine or 10 young men prepared to offer sworn testimony that Sandusky sexually assaulted them, there appears little prospect for a finding of not guilty. If there were one accuser, or two, perhaps the defense could try to make a case for a tight circle of liars. But when you could nearly staff a football lineup with accusers, it strains credulity to believe they are all making it up. More likely, the allegations that Sandusky is a serial abuser will hold up.

One person could have saved the former Penn State defensive coordinator: himself. But that won't happen. Sandusky has given two disastrous interviews that suggest what he'd be like on the stand. And when sportscaster Bob Costas asked the critical, and predictable, question, Sandusky needed to repeat it before he could answer it: "Am I sexually attracted to underage boys?" That's not a good sign.

In a New York Times on-camera interview, Sandusky himself acknowledged his fate, saying, "I miss, I mean you know I'm going to miss my dog." That comment only reinforced my guess that this case ends in a plea.

Assistant coach Mike McQueary is important to the prosecution of Sandusky, but not vital. However, the prosecution of Curley and Schultz rests entirely on McQueary.

According to the grand jury report, McQueary testified that he saw a boy being subjected to anal intercourse by Sandusky in a locker-room shower. He reportedly told his father, John, and a family friend, Jon Dranov, though what was actually said is in dispute. But they then advised him to tell Joe Paterno. After speaking with the head coach, McQueary then spoke to Curley and Schultz.

The charges of perjury and failure to report a crime against Curley and Schultz presuppose that McQueary told them what he saw in 2002 with the same clarity with which he is now testifying. If that's the standard used, they won't be convicted.