Worldview: A lack of communication with Iran could make any confrontation deadly

Last week, the Obama administration warned Iran that it would cross a "red line" if it closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow opening at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of the world's daily oil trade flows.

Iran recently threatened to close the waterway if the West imposed new economic sanctions, which is about to happen. Many U.S. experts doubt the Tehran regime really intends to block the strait because that would choke off Iran's own oil exports and cut its main source of revenue.

The bigger fear is that rising tensions will spark a gulf incident that could escalate into something much bigger. One major reason for this fear: Iran and the United States have no means of communication to defuse a confrontation.

The absence of any direct military hotline could produce the gulf war neither side wants.

This risk has long concerned U.S. military officials. On Jan. 6, 2008, five Iranian speedboats aggressively confronted three U.S. Navy warships; one of the U.S. ships was about to shoot when the Iranian vessels turned away. At the time, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said: "This is a very volatile area. The risk of an incident, and of an incident escalating, is real."

After that 2008 event, retired Adm. James Lyons, who had served as commander of the Pacific Fleet, proposed a remedy in an op-ed article in the Washington Times: Modify the 1972 Incidents at Sea Agreement - designed to prevent misunderstandings between the U.S. and Soviet Navies - for naval operations in the Persian Gulf.

The hotline idea went nowhere - not surprising given the growing tensions between Washington and Tehran over Iran's nuclear program. But according to Iran expert Barbara Slavin, two consecutive heads of U.S. Central Command - Gen. John Abizaid and Adm. William "Fox" Fallon - were apparently denied permission by the George W. Bush administration to pursue such an agreement.

Yet U.S. military commanders did not give up on the concept. In September, the Wall Street Journal reported that a series of "near-miss" encounters between Iranian and U.S. forces had pushed U.S. officials to (again) weigh establishing a military hotline with the Islamic republic.