Iran's threat is an opportunity

Iran's recent threat to block the Strait of Hormuz and choke off the world's oil supply, while frightening to some, presents a golden opportunity.

It's been a decade of cat-and-mouse games between the U.N. inspectors trying to peek under the hood of Iran's "peaceful" nuclear program and the Iranians misdirecting, parsing, spinning, and lying about it, all while putting up new secret nuclear facilities and acquiring nuclear components from the global black market.

Over 10 long years, the international community has alternated among totally ignoring Iran, being engaged but exasperated by a lack of good options, and making saber-rattling threats of war. The political classes in the West and Asia seem to be divided into two camps: advocates for diplomacy and proponents of bombing Iran's nuclear sites.

But then a gift arrived, ironically, from Iran. Senior Iranian political and military officials in December threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz and prevent oil from flowing to world markets. The threat came in response to plans for tough new U.S. and European sanctions, which make it more difficult for Iran to sell its oil and penalize countries that continue to trade with Iran.

The sanctions are not an act of war as Iran claims, but they will exact a painful economic price. So Iran has drawn a new "red line" with the West should the latest sanctions go into effect.

It has said it will attack the global economy and hurt the West and its Asian allies by blocking the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz, cutting off oil supplies and causing prices to spike. The strait is by far the world's most important choke point for oil shipments, with 20 percent of all oil traded worldwide passing through it.

Iran's threat to block the strait betrays a mounting desperation within the country. But it also gives the West options it didn't have before.

Act of war

If the Iranian military blocks the strait, Iran will have taken overt aggression against not just the West. but the world. The world economy can hardly be held hostage to Iran's whims, so U.S. leaders would have a responsibility to unblock the strait by force. So now, instead of just two unattractive options for dealing with Iran - diplomacy vs. military force - a new, third way is available.