Locally, there are positive signs, too. The eight-county Philadelphia region, measured by sales of previously owned houses as recorded by the Multiple Listing Service-based Prudential Fox & Roach HomExpert Market Report, showed modest sales increases in the fourth quarter of 2011.
In December, 3,280 houses sold in the eight counties; 3,118 sold in November, and 3,022 in October, the data show. The numbers for December and November were an improvement over the same months in 2008, just after the stock market collapsed.
Moreover, those fourth-quarter 2011 sales were not dependent on government intervention like the $8,000 homebuyer tax credit that propped up sales in 2009, then left the real estate market hanging for months after it went away.
Economist Kevin Gillen, vice president at Econsult Corp. in Philadelphia, says he expects a bottom likely will be reached in mid-2012, after further modest deflation.
"However, I would not expect a typical robust recovery to ensue," he said. "Inventories remain too high, and the economy remains too sluggish.
The market for newly built homes has been almost comatose since the real estate bubble burst more than five years ago, stymied by tight credit for construction and a glut of cut-rate foreclosures in the Sunbelt and Midwest. Single-family home starts and building permits - key to the health of the residential-construction industry - fell to record lows in 2011, the Census Bureau reported Thursday, though starts in December were up 4.4 percent over November.
